Deng Yali: Chinese rubber industry running situation and prospects
2013/7/25 view:
Distinguished leaders, gentlemen, good
afternoon!
This is my second time to participate in this forum, the Shanghai Futures Exchange. In 2009, they also invited to attend the conference, also made a statement here. Just after a lapse of four years, the situation in the industry, there have been changes that we never thought of, and now things really are not. Organizers to my proposition, let me talk about "Chinese rubber industry operating conditions and prospects."
In the past twenty years, do not put it too far, Chinese rubber industry also came all the way to leap, which has experienced a lot of trials and tribulations, and frustrations. But the entire mainstream development, also called the main theme is such a state, if you must use a shape representation, then, is an uppercase N word, one is all the way up, one is all the way down, one is all the way up yet, this three-way Which three way? This two decades, the main raw material is rubber, rubber industry, with rubber-based. Two decades of development trend has been rising. There I know 6000,1 Wan Wan 6,3 6,2 10,006, rushed up to 40,000. In this trend, China's rubber industry is, tires and other rubber products, such production enterprises, showing what state do? Benefit all the way down. Just now, this is the next. Our average profit margin from the original 30% or so, all the way down to the last two years of 2% to 3%. The third is a strange not strange to say, an inevitable trend. Although the raw material is high, effective way to go down, but the Chinese rubber industry that specific point, our production capacity is still crossed all the way, there are going up.
Tire above-scale enterprises have documented more than 500. That is, the original production of ten million tires, and is now on a one hundred million, last year 470 million. Throughout its history in 20 years are accustomed to. There is also a downward trend during the period, making the tire manufacturing industry will fluctuate. So we used to this way of thinking and development. Sad days over mid, mid-flies are good.
I said it was four years ago we did not expect, I was here four years ago, when the financial crisis has just begun. 2011 appeared clues, tire production has been from the previous double-digit growth down to a number. Other indicators are still in double digits, the original analysis and forecasting in that, in accordance with the inertia of thinking, 2012 will go up. All this is because in the past came to be. There, the second year must be up, but on quite fierce. 2012 contrary to all forecasts, dropped sharply again. It can be said attached two years, we feel that Chinese rubber industry, more than two decades of continuous growth came to an end. China's national economy broke eight.
Rubber industry's most optimistic when, in 2010, when everyone excited. Did not think, came to an end. 2012 fell sharply. 2012 rubber industry into a micro-growth era, the tire is the largest proportion of the rubber industry, accounting for 60 percent last year, in 2012, the country tire production 470 million, an increase of 3%.
This situation should be said that Dehen point is called the unexpected. Not seen in 20 years, while running track has a little bit of change is that the past two years, raw materials are declining. Although the increase is so small, the entire rubber industry growth slowed down significantly. But then the rubber industry realized profits but there was a double-digit growth. Before, we were double-digit decline in profit margins from 30% to our now down to 2%, 3%, less a 0, a lot less. Last year at this double-digit profit margins decline. However, the average profit margin is how much? Take the tire said the average sales margin of 4.5 percent. Our first two years, the average profit margin of the whole, not 2:00 is 3:00 a few a few to 4:06 has increased 1-2 points, and fairness 4.5, 4.6 tall? That is not high, but it is a relatively good record levels in recent years. Increased profits, a rise and fall coexist, very different, also widely concern. Also in the analysis. In fact, a rise and fall, cause it is very simple. Growth declined, showing a slight increase state, the main reason is the market. Two markets, China's economic slowdown, the global economic downturn, the recovery is very weak. Double weakness in domestic and international markets, resulting in decreased demand for sure, so the growth rate slowed down significantly. Why do profits rise? Especially all of you feel should be more intense, raw rubber prices dropped significantly.
In this case, a very large proportion of raw material prices, and certainly the cost has dropped significantly. The price of our products, including tires, also declined. But it drops the speed and time points, did not fall in raw material prices with the point in time synchronization. Therefore, the emergence of this profit seems to grow. Such a situation.
Of course, in recent years, including last year, the year before, but also tires and other rubber products in adjusting our structure, in terms of product quality, technological innovation, improve the efficiency of the production and operation of our profit is influential, contributing rate . Most important thing is the price factor, so it can not be completely clear that we Chinese rubber industry, including tire companies how strong profitability. I think this is something we a very clear.
Especially since last year trend changed the original N-shaped, inverted N-shaped, that is, raw materials decreased, increased cost effectiveness. Has dropped what? Growth rate dropped significantly. This year the situation how? From a quarter of our statistical reports to see, basically continues this trend, growing slightly better than last year, the tire around 6%, after 4,5 months no analysis.
Our exports, is still relatively low, delivery value increased but not decreased in the first quarter, the sales revenue is declining. Lag has begun to appear, tire facing price pressure is also very large. Market is also watching. Tire dealer inventory seriously. This basically is the rubber industry, the current one runs basic, roughly a rough outline of the situation.
Organizers also asked to talk about prospects, I would simply like to say that in 2013 our understanding of this market to do a simple analysis and outlook and positive factor in international blind obedience we study than I do. The EU remains in recession, in fact, there are signs of recovery. The United States should say a little bit better. Overall, the world economy, is still expected to slow recovery, so there is an increase in external demand will help us as we tire export volume accounted for 40% or more, so the international market demand growth and recovery is essential. Together with our special protective case has ended, also eliminated some restrictions affecting exports situation.
We believe that the international market demand will show a rising trend, the domestic front, and rubber industrial development is closely related to mechanical, automobile, coal, steel, cement, building materials, etc., it should be said also have a good slow recovery . In particular, the automotive industry has now reached double-digit growth, thus supporting the needs of both tires will increase. We are not of the increase in car ownership, road traffic, passenger traffic and goods turnover will rise significantly. There are effectively stimulate replacement demand. Especially industrialization and urbanization progresses, the promotion of infrastructure, but also will generate demand for rubber products driving effect. Uncertainty is also very clear from the steady rebound of the domestic economy and the time is still uncertain.
International exchange rate also changes the magnitude of RMB appreciation and export costs are uncertain. Looking to the future part, it should be said that domestic tire and rubber products market, demand will be improved, but do not expect this year has greatly improved. This slight increase, the number rises to low growth, but in order to reproduce the kind of rapid growth in the past, I am afraid that in the near future is difficult.
China's rubber industry into the slow growth period for rubber raw materials and other related industries will also have a greater impact. Rubber industry raw materials, mainly rubber, frame materials, carbon injection and the like can not be less. Rubber include natural rubber and synthetic rubber. This is the most important raw material of rubber industry, there is no rice.
China rubber industry, rubber tires and other products into a low growth scenario, the rubber supply and demand will get some relief. Currently, the industry we rubber industry, consumption of natural rubber and synthetic rubber ratio of approximately 45 natural rubber, synthetic rubber 55. Tire accounting for 65% of the total, the tire is not the same. Synthetic rubber is mainly used for passenger tires, steel is mainly used natural rubber, so using different proportions of semi-steel steel growth, natural rubber, synthetic rubber ratio is also different.
In the past years, the Chinese rubber industry of high growth, the global natural rubber industry, not only into our habits, we are accustomed to the rapid growth of China's rubber industry, the demand for natural rubber brought quickly pulled. Therefore, from the figure we have seen earlier, natural rubber area expanded rapidly in 2005 to 400 million hectares. Rubber futures prices also fluctuate significantly increasing rapidly. Rubber traders also mushroomed, appeared in large numbers. Most are prices for profit. Synthetic also fluctuate rise. On a lot of new projects, we are now synthetic rubber production capacity has exceeded 400 million tons, we actually includes imports, last year spent more than 300 million tons. Over the past six years, 2005 to 2010, six years, China's natural rubber, synthetic rubber annual increase of around 11. Including natural rubber increased by 7.1, synthetic growth 4.8.
Expected that a five-year, "Twelve Five" period, the average annual growth rate we consume about 7, a little lower than in the previous five years, the initial Kandi 4-5 percentage points. So we feel futures speculation and increased risk of traders committed more with manufacturers to establish a relatively stable relationship.
Rubber industry in pursuit of sustained and stable development, to a certain size, it is impossible not to long-term high-speed development of the rubber expectations as well. Not to say that the lower the better. We lower price pressure is very large, it is difficult to control the production and supply. Therefore, at a reasonable price is relatively stable operation, stable raw material prices, tire products price stability. Rubber producers, traders and suppliers have reasonable power consumption. Downstream harmony and win-win, the whole industry chain to co-continuous and healthy development. This is our common hope.
Low and medium-speed development period, the rubber industry into the structural adjustment period, as part of our development priorities, with new growth, in addition to a very important upgrade is the implementation of China's green tire industry development, which is the upgrading of tire products.
The so-called green tires for everyone to report about, refers to all materials non-toxic to humans and the environment, in line with EU standards. Production process low-power, low dust, low smoke production anger. Third, the product is a green product. Along with better handling and stability. To meet the energy saving, safety and other requirements. Green tires are both environmentally friendly and rich in high-tech upgrade of the product. EU tire labeling law has been enacted has implemented, the green tire products are becoming the current world tire industry development direction.
Green materials, green tire manufacturing base. Rubber industries, synthetic rubber can meet a lot. Now some of our natural rubber producers, but also actively develop green tire with natural rubber. We hope that in the process of green tire industry, our production and supply of raw materials, rubber and tire manufacturers have more cooperation, mutual benefit and common development, thank you!
This is my second time to participate in this forum, the Shanghai Futures Exchange. In 2009, they also invited to attend the conference, also made a statement here. Just after a lapse of four years, the situation in the industry, there have been changes that we never thought of, and now things really are not. Organizers to my proposition, let me talk about "Chinese rubber industry operating conditions and prospects."
In the past twenty years, do not put it too far, Chinese rubber industry also came all the way to leap, which has experienced a lot of trials and tribulations, and frustrations. But the entire mainstream development, also called the main theme is such a state, if you must use a shape representation, then, is an uppercase N word, one is all the way up, one is all the way down, one is all the way up yet, this three-way Which three way? This two decades, the main raw material is rubber, rubber industry, with rubber-based. Two decades of development trend has been rising. There I know 6000,1 Wan Wan 6,3 6,2 10,006, rushed up to 40,000. In this trend, China's rubber industry is, tires and other rubber products, such production enterprises, showing what state do? Benefit all the way down. Just now, this is the next. Our average profit margin from the original 30% or so, all the way down to the last two years of 2% to 3%. The third is a strange not strange to say, an inevitable trend. Although the raw material is high, effective way to go down, but the Chinese rubber industry that specific point, our production capacity is still crossed all the way, there are going up.
Tire above-scale enterprises have documented more than 500. That is, the original production of ten million tires, and is now on a one hundred million, last year 470 million. Throughout its history in 20 years are accustomed to. There is also a downward trend during the period, making the tire manufacturing industry will fluctuate. So we used to this way of thinking and development. Sad days over mid, mid-flies are good.
I said it was four years ago we did not expect, I was here four years ago, when the financial crisis has just begun. 2011 appeared clues, tire production has been from the previous double-digit growth down to a number. Other indicators are still in double digits, the original analysis and forecasting in that, in accordance with the inertia of thinking, 2012 will go up. All this is because in the past came to be. There, the second year must be up, but on quite fierce. 2012 contrary to all forecasts, dropped sharply again. It can be said attached two years, we feel that Chinese rubber industry, more than two decades of continuous growth came to an end. China's national economy broke eight.
Rubber industry's most optimistic when, in 2010, when everyone excited. Did not think, came to an end. 2012 fell sharply. 2012 rubber industry into a micro-growth era, the tire is the largest proportion of the rubber industry, accounting for 60 percent last year, in 2012, the country tire production 470 million, an increase of 3%.
This situation should be said that Dehen point is called the unexpected. Not seen in 20 years, while running track has a little bit of change is that the past two years, raw materials are declining. Although the increase is so small, the entire rubber industry growth slowed down significantly. But then the rubber industry realized profits but there was a double-digit growth. Before, we were double-digit decline in profit margins from 30% to our now down to 2%, 3%, less a 0, a lot less. Last year at this double-digit profit margins decline. However, the average profit margin is how much? Take the tire said the average sales margin of 4.5 percent. Our first two years, the average profit margin of the whole, not 2:00 is 3:00 a few a few to 4:06 has increased 1-2 points, and fairness 4.5, 4.6 tall? That is not high, but it is a relatively good record levels in recent years. Increased profits, a rise and fall coexist, very different, also widely concern. Also in the analysis. In fact, a rise and fall, cause it is very simple. Growth declined, showing a slight increase state, the main reason is the market. Two markets, China's economic slowdown, the global economic downturn, the recovery is very weak. Double weakness in domestic and international markets, resulting in decreased demand for sure, so the growth rate slowed down significantly. Why do profits rise? Especially all of you feel should be more intense, raw rubber prices dropped significantly.
In this case, a very large proportion of raw material prices, and certainly the cost has dropped significantly. The price of our products, including tires, also declined. But it drops the speed and time points, did not fall in raw material prices with the point in time synchronization. Therefore, the emergence of this profit seems to grow. Such a situation.
Of course, in recent years, including last year, the year before, but also tires and other rubber products in adjusting our structure, in terms of product quality, technological innovation, improve the efficiency of the production and operation of our profit is influential, contributing rate . Most important thing is the price factor, so it can not be completely clear that we Chinese rubber industry, including tire companies how strong profitability. I think this is something we a very clear.
Especially since last year trend changed the original N-shaped, inverted N-shaped, that is, raw materials decreased, increased cost effectiveness. Has dropped what? Growth rate dropped significantly. This year the situation how? From a quarter of our statistical reports to see, basically continues this trend, growing slightly better than last year, the tire around 6%, after 4,5 months no analysis.
Our exports, is still relatively low, delivery value increased but not decreased in the first quarter, the sales revenue is declining. Lag has begun to appear, tire facing price pressure is also very large. Market is also watching. Tire dealer inventory seriously. This basically is the rubber industry, the current one runs basic, roughly a rough outline of the situation.
Organizers also asked to talk about prospects, I would simply like to say that in 2013 our understanding of this market to do a simple analysis and outlook and positive factor in international blind obedience we study than I do. The EU remains in recession, in fact, there are signs of recovery. The United States should say a little bit better. Overall, the world economy, is still expected to slow recovery, so there is an increase in external demand will help us as we tire export volume accounted for 40% or more, so the international market demand growth and recovery is essential. Together with our special protective case has ended, also eliminated some restrictions affecting exports situation.
We believe that the international market demand will show a rising trend, the domestic front, and rubber industrial development is closely related to mechanical, automobile, coal, steel, cement, building materials, etc., it should be said also have a good slow recovery . In particular, the automotive industry has now reached double-digit growth, thus supporting the needs of both tires will increase. We are not of the increase in car ownership, road traffic, passenger traffic and goods turnover will rise significantly. There are effectively stimulate replacement demand. Especially industrialization and urbanization progresses, the promotion of infrastructure, but also will generate demand for rubber products driving effect. Uncertainty is also very clear from the steady rebound of the domestic economy and the time is still uncertain.
International exchange rate also changes the magnitude of RMB appreciation and export costs are uncertain. Looking to the future part, it should be said that domestic tire and rubber products market, demand will be improved, but do not expect this year has greatly improved. This slight increase, the number rises to low growth, but in order to reproduce the kind of rapid growth in the past, I am afraid that in the near future is difficult.
China's rubber industry into the slow growth period for rubber raw materials and other related industries will also have a greater impact. Rubber industry raw materials, mainly rubber, frame materials, carbon injection and the like can not be less. Rubber include natural rubber and synthetic rubber. This is the most important raw material of rubber industry, there is no rice.
China rubber industry, rubber tires and other products into a low growth scenario, the rubber supply and demand will get some relief. Currently, the industry we rubber industry, consumption of natural rubber and synthetic rubber ratio of approximately 45 natural rubber, synthetic rubber 55. Tire accounting for 65% of the total, the tire is not the same. Synthetic rubber is mainly used for passenger tires, steel is mainly used natural rubber, so using different proportions of semi-steel steel growth, natural rubber, synthetic rubber ratio is also different.
In the past years, the Chinese rubber industry of high growth, the global natural rubber industry, not only into our habits, we are accustomed to the rapid growth of China's rubber industry, the demand for natural rubber brought quickly pulled. Therefore, from the figure we have seen earlier, natural rubber area expanded rapidly in 2005 to 400 million hectares. Rubber futures prices also fluctuate significantly increasing rapidly. Rubber traders also mushroomed, appeared in large numbers. Most are prices for profit. Synthetic also fluctuate rise. On a lot of new projects, we are now synthetic rubber production capacity has exceeded 400 million tons, we actually includes imports, last year spent more than 300 million tons. Over the past six years, 2005 to 2010, six years, China's natural rubber, synthetic rubber annual increase of around 11. Including natural rubber increased by 7.1, synthetic growth 4.8.
Expected that a five-year, "Twelve Five" period, the average annual growth rate we consume about 7, a little lower than in the previous five years, the initial Kandi 4-5 percentage points. So we feel futures speculation and increased risk of traders committed more with manufacturers to establish a relatively stable relationship.
Rubber industry in pursuit of sustained and stable development, to a certain size, it is impossible not to long-term high-speed development of the rubber expectations as well. Not to say that the lower the better. We lower price pressure is very large, it is difficult to control the production and supply. Therefore, at a reasonable price is relatively stable operation, stable raw material prices, tire products price stability. Rubber producers, traders and suppliers have reasonable power consumption. Downstream harmony and win-win, the whole industry chain to co-continuous and healthy development. This is our common hope.
Low and medium-speed development period, the rubber industry into the structural adjustment period, as part of our development priorities, with new growth, in addition to a very important upgrade is the implementation of China's green tire industry development, which is the upgrading of tire products.
The so-called green tires for everyone to report about, refers to all materials non-toxic to humans and the environment, in line with EU standards. Production process low-power, low dust, low smoke production anger. Third, the product is a green product. Along with better handling and stability. To meet the energy saving, safety and other requirements. Green tires are both environmentally friendly and rich in high-tech upgrade of the product. EU tire labeling law has been enacted has implemented, the green tire products are becoming the current world tire industry development direction.
Green materials, green tire manufacturing base. Rubber industries, synthetic rubber can meet a lot. Now some of our natural rubber producers, but also actively develop green tire with natural rubber. We hope that in the process of green tire industry, our production and supply of raw materials, rubber and tire manufacturers have more cooperation, mutual benefit and common development, thank you!
- Pre：Christine He Juqiang website p 2013/7/25
- Next：Rubber Daily: differences incr 2013/7/25
